bzhmacro.com
bzhmacro

Macro analysis,
that springs to mind

Electoral models, macro-economic replications, and fixed-income trade structuring tools. Every project rebuilt from primary public sources, with the method shown.

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01

Elections

6 projects
German Elections germany-elections.bzhmacro.com

A constituency-level electoral dashboard covering Germany's Bundestag and all 16 Landtage, built on the shared elections-core engine behind the UK, French and Italian sister sites. From the 299 Wahlkreise of the 2025 federal election (Bundeswahlleiterin open data) it runs a Sainte-Laguë seat projection off a live dawum.de poll-of-polls, and extends to per-Land detail, a Wahlkreis explorer with SVG choropleth and KNN statistical twins over Strukturdaten, all in a bilingual DE/EN interface. Beyond the vote it models the machinery of German federalism — a Bundeshaushalt 2026 budget builder with the reformed Schuldenbremse rule engine and Sondervermögen, Art. 106 tax splits and the Finanzkraftausgleich, and asylum distribution by Königsteiner Schlüssel.

Bundestag + 16 Landtage 299 Wahlkreise Sainte-Laguë projection dawum.de poll DB Schuldenbremse budget builder static · Vercel
  • Federal polls + Sainte-Laguë seat projection (BTW 2025)
  • State Elections hub — all 16 Landtage & Bundesrat stakes
  • Wahlkreis explorer: SVG choropleth + KNN statistical twins
  • Budget Builder: Bundeshaushalt 2026, Schuldenbremse & Sondervermögen
  • Federalism: Art. 106 tax splits, Finanzkraftausgleich, Bundesrat
  • Migration by Königsteiner Schlüssel · bilingual DE/EN
French Elections french-elections.bzhmacro.com

A voter-transition model and 2027 presidential forecast built from commune-level results across France's major national elections (2017–2024). The core is a transition probability matrix estimated by ecological inference — mapping how voters flow between political families across consecutive elections — combined with live Wikipedia poll data to project both rounds of the 2027 presidential election as a Sankey diagram.

~35,000 communes ecological inference 8 political families 2027 forecast data.gouv.fr static · Vercel
  • Live 2027 polling tracker (Wikipedia-sourced)
  • R1 → R2 Sankey vote-flow diagram
  • Transition matrix heatmap
  • Backtest panel (2017 & 2022 hindcasts)
  • Socio-electoral analysis: NMF archetypes, UMAP, spatial regressions
  • Interactive territorial k-NN map
Annuler la dette ? annuler-la-dette.bzhmacro.com

An interactive model of what cancelling the €600bn of French government debt held by the Eurosystem would actually do, with every lever exposed and a bilingual FR/EN research note behind it. The ledger: cancelling the Banque de France's €599.76bn of French public-sector holdings stops €6.47bn of annual Treasury coupon — while the State, which owns the Banque de France outright, loses €5.92bn of central-bank income it would otherwise have received; the €0.54bn residual sits on the ECB's own books, pooled by capital key, so it is a transfer from Germany, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands, who have a veto. A solvency test (after Reis) and a priced version of the “inflation erases the debt” argument sit alongside it, and 28bp of permanent spread widening — less than France moved on budget politics alone between March 2024 and January 2025 — erases the whole saving. Every input is tagged observed, derived or an assumption with a source; the JavaScript port is checked against the Python reference model across 678,246 values and 2,896 cases, with 24 accounting identities run on every evaluation plus a 2,000-draw parameter sweep.

€599.76bn Eurosystem holdings solvency test (Reis) 678,246-value parity suite 24 identity checks bilingual FR/EN static · Vercel
  • Cancellation ledger: €6.47bn coupon saved vs €5.92bn BdF income lost, €0.54bn capital-key transfer
  • Solvency test (after Reis) on the Banque de France's balance sheet
  • “Inflation erases the debt” claim, priced rather than asserted
  • 28bp spread-widening breakeven vs France's own realised budget-politics moves
  • Every figure tagged observed / derived / assumption, sourced in a 70-entry register
  • JS↔Python parity (678,246 values, 2,896 cases) + 24 identities + 2,000-draw sweep
UK Elections uk-elections.bzhmacro.com

A ward-level electoral analysis pipeline and interactive dashboard covering UK General Elections (2015–2024) and local council elections (2016–2026). Built from roughly 8,000 wards across England, Scotland, and Wales, it combines ONS 2021 Census demographics, the Index of Multiple Deprivation, and multi-cycle vote share data to explain and project electoral outcomes at the most granular level available.

ward-level · ~8,000 wards KNN similarity census + IMD 7-bloc taxonomy static · Vercel Python pipeline
  • Vote-flow Sankey & editable transition matrix
  • Live polling tracker for the next GE
  • Local & General results explorer (2015–2026)
  • Ward similarity lookup powered by KNN
  • Choropleth demographic map
  • Fully browser-based, no server required
Italy Elections italy-elections.bzhmacro.com

A comune-level electoral analysis pipeline and dashboard for Italy's Camera & Senato general elections (2013, 2018, 2022), mirroring the UK ward-level project across roughly 7,900 comuni. At its core is a Rosatellum mixed-member seat simulator — ~37% FPTP collegi uninominali plus ~61% largest-remainder PR plurinominali — that reproduces the 2022 Parliament within a few seats per coalition and projects a live seat distribution from coalition vote shares via uniform national swing. Comune features combine ISTAT census, density and IVSM deprivation to drive a feature-space KNN and spatial-neighbour lookup, and a Wikipedia-sourced poll-of-polls refreshes server-side on the deployed site.

~7,900 comuni Camera + Senato Rosatellum simulator 2013 · 2018 · 2022 ISTAT + IVSM static · Vercel
  • Rosatellum seat engine: FPTP collegi + largest-remainder PR
  • Reproduces 2022 Parliament; live projection from vote shares
  • Three elections × two chambers (2013–2022)
  • Comune similarity lookup powered by KNN
  • Live poll-of-polls tracker (Wikipedia-sourced)
  • Census, density & IVSM deprivation enrichment
Turnout Field turnout.bzhmacro.com

A reproducible replication of the Borghesi–Raynal–Bouchaud (2012, PLoS ONE) diffusive-field model of election turnout, restricted to France and extended to 56 elections (1999–2026). The paper's claim: a commune's logarithmic turnout rate behaves like a physical field — an idiosyncratic part, a city-specific part, and a slow cultural field that diffuses between neighbours (correlation length ℓc ≈ 4.5 km) — producing the observed logarithmic decay of spatial turnout correlations. Over ~34,700 mainland communes the dashboard rebuilds every observable from open data (Ministère de l'Intérieur results + commune centroids) and checks it against the authors' numbers. A country-agnostic engine also wires in Italy, which independently reproduces its opposite-signed (negative) skewness and a clean North–South gradient.

Borghesi–Bouchaud field model 56 elections · 1999–2026 ~34,700 communes C(r) ~ −ln r ℓc ≈ 4.5 km diffusion static · Vercel
  • Size-detrended log-turnout field map (~34,700 communes)
  • Rescaled distribution P(u) vs a Gaussian
  • Size dependence m_N, σ_N by commune size
  • Spatial correlation C(r) + log fit + diffusive-field overlay
  • Cultural-field extraction β²σ_φ² & validation vs the paper
  • Country selector: France + Italy (opposite-signed skew)
02

Economy

7 projects
Inflation ABMs abm-inflation.bzhmacro.com

Two reproducible agent-based models of inflation in one browser app. Mark-0 is a faithful replication of Knicker, Naumann-Woleske, Bouchaud & Zamponi (2025) on post-COVID inflation — ~10,000 firms plus a household sector hit by calibrated demand, supply-chain and energy shocks — and reproduces the paper's central results, including anchored-CB peak inflation (8.8% paper vs 8.9% model) and the monetary-policy dilemma. firmnet reconstructs the UK firm-to-firm production network from public ONS data (104 CPA sectors, 2.73M firms, 0% lost), ranks systemically-critical sectors, and runs a stock-flow-consistent whole-economy ABM with credit and firm default. Both engines recompute live in the browser as parity-tested JS twins of the Python code.

Mark-0 replication ~10,000 firms + households UK network · 2.73M firms stock-flow-consistent ABM parity-tested JS twin static · Vercel
  • Post-COVID inflation: demand, supply & energy shocks
  • Monetary-policy dilemma: anchoring vs the rate level
  • UK production network rebuilt from ONS I-O + Business Counts
  • Systemic-risk (ESRI) ranking of critical sectors
  • Network ABM: energy shock → stagflation, demand → recession
  • Live in-browser recompute, parity-tested against Python
UK Inflation Lab uk-inflation.bzhmacro.com

An interactive dashboard over the ONS CPI & RPI item indices and price quotes — the ~700 narrowly defined products beneath the UK CPI — with a heavy focus on time series, seasonality and calendar effects (bank holidays, Easter drift, school holidays, royal events, duty/cap changes, sales windows). Overlay up to 5 of 860+ chained item series on levels / 12-month % / m-o-m, rank seasonal amplitudes, and run event studies that flag abnormal month-on-month movers around curated events with confound warnings. A price-quotes view profiles the ~94k raw monthly quotes (n, p10/median/p90, CV, region × shop-type), and a replication playbook documents how to rebuild the ONS collection from scrapeable, API, vendor and open-data sources. Built as a static Vite/React site over ~1.4 MB of committed JSON, with a 254-file source manifest carrying SHA-256 checksums.

860+ item series ~700 CPI products seasonality + event studies ~94k price quotes OGL v3.0 · ONS Vite · React · Vercel
  • Item explorer: overlay up to 5 series, levels / YoY / m-o-m
  • Seasonality profiles, amplitude ranking & heatmap
  • Curated event calendar (royal, policy, sales, COVID)
  • Event studies: abnormal movers with confound warnings
  • Price-quote distributions by region × shop-type
  • Replication playbook + 254-file SHA-256 source manifest
Inflation Momentum inflation-momentum.bzhmacro.com

Two from-scratch replications of the San Francisco Fed's inflation research in one browser app, switchable by a top-level Model toggle. The Momentum Index reproduces the Inflation Shock Momentum (ISM) index of Lansing & Shapiro (2026, FRBSF WP 2026-10): a 120-month rolling AR(1) benchmark per PCE category, a category counted as positive (or negative) momentum when its last k residuals all surprise the same way, aggregated to the expenditure-weighted net share S⁺ − S⁻ — correlating ~0.99 with the authors' series. The Supply/Demand page replicates Shapiro (2024, FRBSF WP 2022-18): a rolling reduced-form VAR of each category's price and quantity signs every category-month as demand- or supply-driven, aggregating to the supply- and demand-driven contributions to headline and core PCE inflation — and the same estimator ports to Canada, the UK, France, Germany and Japan via national-accounts data.

ISM momentum + supply/demand ~130 PCE categories rolling AR(1) & price-quantity VAR FRBSF WP 2026-10 · 2022-18 CA · UK · FR · DE · JP ports static · Vercel
  • Model toggle: Momentum Index ⇄ Supply/Demand decomposition
  • Momentum: expenditure-weighted runs S⁺ − S⁻ (~0.99 correlation)
  • Decomp: price-quantity VAR → demand- vs supply-driven inflation
  • Headline & core PCE, incl. FRBSF precision-cut "ambiguous" variant
  • Country ports: Canada, UK, France, Germany, Japan
  • Parity-tested browser twins · CSV export · local-projection tests
European Gas Monitor gas-monitor.bzhmacro.com

A storage, LNG and pipeline-flow monitor for Europe with seasonality analysis, refill feasibility and cold-winter stress tests — built in the wake of the 2026 Strait of Hormuz closure that took Qatari LNG (~12–14% of Europe's supply) off the market. It tracks each country's storage fill against full seasonal bands (min–max / 10–90% / median since 2011), models demand as an OLS of daily net withdrawal on heating degree-days, and projects storage through winter under preset severities (mild → 1-in-20, a strong-El Niño cold tilt), configurable cold snaps, Hormuz LNG cuts and arbitrary supply shocks — with an 80% band from model residuals. A Leaflet map plots every major LNG terminal, pipeline entry and interconnector with live flow/storage popups, and an external-corridor view (Norway, North Africa, TurkStream, TAP) marks the Hormuz closure. Built entirely from public data (GIE AGSI+/ALSI, ENTSOG, National Gas UK, Open-Meteo ERA5) with a daily GitHub Action refresh.

storage · LNG · pipeline flows seasonal bands since 2011 HDD demand · winter stress test Hormuz / El Niño scenarios GIE · ENTSOG · Open-Meteo static · Vercel
  • EU overview: fill %, seasonal deviation, projected 1 Nov & cold-winter min
  • Per-country storage vs full seasonal bands (min–max / 10–90% / median)
  • Winter stress test: preset severities, cold snaps, Hormuz cuts, shocks
  • Refill feasibility: required vs historical injection pace, ETAs
  • Leaflet map of LNG terminals, pipeline entries & interconnectors
  • External corridors (Norway, N. Africa, TurkStream, TAP) · daily refresh
China Imbalance Monitor china-monitor.bzhmacro.com

A near-real-time monitor of China's external surplus and its spillovers, rebuilt from primary statistical sources to answer one standing question: is the imbalance still building, and where would it first turn? The analytical frame is Brad Setser's (CFR) — his charts, transforms and thresholds — but nothing is scraped from his figures: every series is fetched from the original agency and recomputed, reproducing his published numbers independently (a $1,183bn 2025 customs goods surplus, a $735.0bn current account ≈ 6.0% of GDP, a real yuan ~13.6% below trend). At its centre is a 0–100 pressure index across four blocks — surplus momentum, FX & capital-flow pressure, domestic demand & deflation, spillover & retaliation risk — scored as percentiles of each component's own history (not z-scores, which explode on trending levels), with a momentum reading beside it telling you which way things are moving. It adds 13 named trigger rules, each a single threshold encoding a specific Setser claim shown with its full firing history since 2015, and 38 charts reproducing his library. Proxies are labelled as proxies in the chart caption, and a daily GitHub Action refreshes the whole thing, failing loudly if a surplus- or FX-block fetch breaks.

Setser imbalance frame 0–100 pressure index 13 trigger rules · 38 charts percentile scoring GACC · SAFE · PBOC · BIS · Comtrade static · daily GitHub Action
  • Composite pressure index (0–100) + momentum across four blocks
  • 13 named trigger rules, each with firing history since 2015
  • 38 charts reproducing Setser's library, his transforms
  • Every series recomputed from the primary agency, validated to print
  • Percentile scoring so trending & mean-reverting series compare
  • Proxies labelled in-caption · daily refresh, fails loudly on outage
Economic Workbench workbench.bzhmacro.com

A local-first workbench for US labour income, built on one identity: payroll is not a wage — aggregate weekly payroll = employees × weekly hours × hourly earnings, and what that payroll is worth depends on what a cohort buys. Cohort payrolls are assembled from 2,112 BLS Current Employment Statistics series across 356 industries, deflated by cohort-specific Consumer Expenditure Survey baskets, seasonally adjusted with the Census Bureau's X-13ARIMA-SEATS, and set against retail sales and a ~280-series FRED library. The payroll engine is checked against BLS's own published aggregate (data type 57) on every rebuild — 280 industries compared, none above 1% error, total private matching to about 1 part in 11.5 million — and the CI fails if that regresses. Real payroll growth decomposes exactly into headcount, hours-per-head, hourly earnings and price drag; a cohort builder lets you assemble a custom industry group with fractional weights and X-11 adjust it live in the browser, and known gaps (government has no hours/earnings series, all-employee data starts March 2006) are badged rather than papered over.

BLS CES · 2,112 series CEX cohort baskets X-13ARIMA-SEATS payroll identity, validated ~280 FRED series React · Vite · Vercel
  • Real payroll growth by wage tier — headcount, hours, earnings, price drag
  • Payroll identity checked vs BLS data type 57 every rebuild
  • Cohort builder: fractional weights, double-count guard, live X-11 adjust
  • Series workbench: transforms, deflators, leads/lags, correlations, OLS
  • Seasonal lab: direct vs indirect adjustment, residual-seasonality tests
  • Cohort cost-of-living indices + a CEX price-shock simulator
European Rivers european-rivers.bzhmacro.com

One dashboard over two river systems, switchable from a single deployment. The Rhine & German waterways side reads live gauges from PEGELONLINE (WSV) — Rhine, Elbe, upper Danube, Main, Mosel and more — with Kaub's low-water navigation thresholds, seasonal bands, long history and the 2018/2022 drought comparisons. The Danube basin side pulls live level, discharge and water temperature from DanubeHIS (ICPDR), backed by DAHITI satellite altimetry, with ~10 years pre-cached at the 11 strategic navigation points so the seasonal comparison — today's live level against the multi-year normal for the date — turns on. Beyond levels it carries a nuclear-cooling watch over the Danube's riverside reactors (Paks, Cernavodă, Kozloduy, Krško…), a riparian energy-mix map and barge-transport volumes. Vercel functions proxy each upstream (PEGELONLINE, DanubeHIS scrape + DAHITI), and one chart and Europe map drive both rivers.

Rhine + Danube PEGELONLINE · DanubeHIS DAHITI altimetry nuclear-cooling watch seasonal bands · Kaub thresholds Vercel functions
  • Switcher over two systems: Rhine/German waterways + Danube basin
  • Live level, discharge & water temperature per gauge
  • Seasonal comparison: today's level vs the multi-year normal for the date
  • Kaub low-water navigation thresholds + 2018/2022 drought compare
  • Danube nuclear-cooling watch (Paks, Cernavodă, Kozloduy, Krško)
  • Riparian energy-mix map, barge-transport volumes & Europe map
03

Trading

11 projects
TangoAlpha tangoalpha.bzhmacro.com

A decision-support toolkit for structuring and sizing directional macro trades across three instruments: EUR interest-rate swaptions, EUR yield-curve spread strategies, and EUR/USD spot options. For a given directional view and risk budget, each module recommends an appropriate option structure, overlays the market-implied risk-neutral density against the user's subjective distribution, computes carry and vol risk premium, and sizes the position. All modules run fully in the browser against historical data panels going back to 2017.

swaption cube · 2017–present Breeden-Litzenberger Bachelier / Garman-Kohlhagen fractional Kelly sizing browser-only

Three modules

Rates

EUR swaption trade structuring. Recommends outright, vertical, butterfly, calendar, or ratio-spread structures from a directional rate view. Overlays the implied density, vol risk premium surface, carry/rolldown heatmap, and magnet/gravity-point map.
FX

EUR/USD option strategy optimiser. Prices calls, puts, spreads, risk reversals, butterflies, and 1×2 ratios using Garman-Kohlhagen against a 5-point smile across seven tenors. Ranks structures by bang-for-buck, probability of profit, or combined score.
Curve

Yield-curve spread trades via swaption pairs. Structures DV01-neutral bull/bear steepeners and flatteners using Bachelier pricing, with a 2D scatter of the joint (short rate, spread) space, historical backtest, and vol-spline interpolation.
UK Gilt Supply uk-supply.bzhmacro.com

A data pipeline, point-in-time forecasting engine and dashboard for the supply of UK government bonds — what has been issued, what was planned at any past moment, what is estimated to come, and the relative-value picture around it. Built entirely from public sources (DMO, HM Treasury, OBR, ONS, Bank of England), it stores remits and quarterly calendars as they stood at each announcement, so any historical as-of date reconstructs the remit in force, the issuance already done, and a pattern-based estimate of the residual programme.

issuance since 1981 point-in-time remits NSS curve fit weekly notional · DV01 DMO · OBR · ONS · BoE FastAPI · Vercel
  • As-of forecast slider: remit, done & residual by bucket
  • Forward timeline blending announced ops with estimates
  • Weekly supply & cashflow (issuance, QT, redemptions, coupons)
  • Interactive curve — yield/asset-swap × maturity/duration
  • Rich/cheap residuals & constant-maturity history
  • Auditable: source registry with per-file SHA-256 lineage
Solvency II Review solvency2.bzhmacro.com

A scenario engine for how the EU Solvency II Review (in force 30 January 2027) reshapes euro-area insurer hedging demand at the long end of the curve. It pairs an EIOPA-validated discount-curve sandbox — the current Smith-Wilson extrapolation against the new alternative method, reproducing EIOPA's published numbers to ≤ 0.05 bp — with an adjustable flow model that turns the extrapolation change into a structural EUR ultra-long receiving / 20s50s flattener and a cash-over-swaps swap-spread tilt, sized bottom-up from a public-disclosure insurer dataset.

in force 30 Jan 2027 Smith-Wilson vs alt. extrapolation EIOPA-validated ≤ 0.05 bp 20s50s flattener · ~€201bn 40-group insurer dataset static · Vercel
  • Editable EUR discount-curve sandbox (current vs new)
  • Live α-taper 20s/50s flattening flow model
  • Cash-vs-CSSR swap-spread tilt module
  • Bottom-up sizing across the €5.2tn life market
  • Reproducible EIOPA curve pipeline (Python)
  • Transparent method & formulas — every input a slider
UK Insurance and LDI uk-insurance-ldi.bzhmacro.com

A sourced account of how UK defined-benefit pensions and life insurers hold and hedge the sterling long end — LDI, the September 2022 gilt crisis and the regime since, Solvency UK's matching adjustment, bulk annuities and funded reinsurance, and bilateral collateral and xVA — built entirely from public sources with 309 registered documents behind 295 numbers and 23 claims. It traces £1,068bn of DB scheme assets (125% funded) and c.£850bn of insurer guaranteed liabilities through the 27 September 2022 crisis (the 30-year gilt up 50bp in a day, >£70bn of collateral calls, £19.3bn bought by the Bank), computed directly from the Bank of England's own published yield curves, to the current buffer regime (LDI notional halved to £0.7trn) and on to CP8/26's tightening of funded-reinsurance capital from 1 July 2027. Three worked models price the matching adjustment (c.£81bn, 38–40% of own funds), a leveraged-LDI hedge, and cleared vs bilateral xVA on a 30-year £100m swap (0.5–2bp cleared vs 22–61bp uncollateralised).

LDI & Solvency UK 309 sources · 295 numbers matching adjustment Sept 2022 gilt crisis xVA worked models static · Vercel
  • Sept 2022 crisis timeline computed from the Bank's own published gilt yield curves
  • Matching adjustment mechanics, worth c.£81bn (38–40% of own funds) at end-2020
  • Bulk annuities & Bermuda funded re, priced through CP8/26's July 2027 tightening
  • Leveraged-LDI and cleared-vs-bilateral xVA worked models (0.5–61bp by CSA type)
  • Buffer regime since 2022: LDI notional halved to £0.7trn, dealer-repo constraints
  • 309-document source register — every number citation-tagged, 70 logged gaps
Structured Products Deep Dives structured-products.bzhmacro.com

Six research notes on structured-note families in rates and cross-currency, each built the same way: a deal register assembled bottom-up from primary documents and keyed on ISIN or CUSIP, every row tagged VERIFIED, REPORTED, DERIVED or INFERRED with its source; then the hedging chain worked out net of investor, issuer and dealer; then an illustrative model that isolates the one parameter nobody can hedge. TEC10 (€3.33bn across thirty-one deals), US CMT ($626.2m documented against 438 filings), Formosa (~$129bn of USD callables, >90% insurer-held), the zero floor (worth 2.50% on the index and 0.06% on the coupon — one clause, a fortyfold difference), LPI (£1.4tn of statutory inflation collars the 2022 LDI literature never names), and a pipeline survey ranking fourteen further families by residual rather than by size.

TEC10 · US CMT Formosa callables zero floor · LPI EDGAR · ESMA · TPEx · BIS registers ISIN-keyed models reproduce every number
  • Six notes, 15–30 typeset pages each, with PDF and source register alongside
  • Deal registers built from 424B2s, final terms and base prospectuses — status-tagged per row
  • Coverage ledgers: what could not be obtained, and why, rather than a clean table
  • Model-risk bands isolated by varying the unhedgeable parameter at fixed marginals
  • NONE FOUND written where no public figure exists — the absence is the finding
  • Pipeline survey ranks fourteen candidate families and costs each dive
Spire spire.bzhmacro.com

A self-refreshing tracker for every note issued under Single Platform Investment Repackaging Entity SA (SPIRE SA, LEI 635400AXHEAFQKFFNO47), built entirely from free public data. It lists each note (ISIN, FIGI, currency, notional, coupon, maturity, venue), flags its lifecycle status — outstanding, matured or redeemed early — and estimates the underlying government bond by maturity-matching each series against a sovereign repository (US, UK and ten Eurozone issuers). A daily GitHub Action regenerates the data and Vercel redeploys, so the notes and the sovereign repository stay current, with a freshness badge on the page.

SPIRE SA repacks ESMA FIRDS · TreasuryDirect OpenFIGI · spiresa.com underlying estimate daily refresh · no paid data static · Vercel
  • Full note list: ISIN, FIGI, currency, notional, coupon, maturity, venue
  • Lifecycle status — outstanding / matured / redeemed early
  • Estimated underlying sovereign via maturity-matching heuristic
  • Programme documents: base prospectuses, supplements, financials
  • Freshness badge (green ≤36h, orange ≤8d, red beyond)
  • Daily GitHub Action refresh — notes & sovereign repo, free sources only
GPIF Observatory gpif.bzhmacro.com

A position-by-position rebuild of Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund — the world's largest pension fund, ¥293.6tn at FY2025-end — from its once-a-year full-holdings disclosures (保有全銘柄, FY2014→FY2025, ~183k security lines). The bond book's 15,154 ISINs are resolved to coupon, maturity and JGB issue number via an OpenFIGI join (10,536 ISINs mapped, 36 misses), and a par-assumption risk engine estimates per-line modified duration and DV01 — ¥105.7bn per basis point at FY2025-end, ≈¥1.06tn per 10bp move, covering 99.2% of domestic and 100% of foreign market value. Dashboards track twenty years of allocation against the policy portfolio and its three regime changes (Oct 2014, Apr 2020, Apr 2025), duration drift (domestic 9.5y → 8.6y, foreign 7.9y → 6.6y since FY2019), and country × maturity DV01 heatmaps. Security-level bond & equity explorers add per-issue ownership vs amount outstanding — MOF for JGBs, Treasury MSPD for USTs — and set the ¥71.0tn foreign equity sleeve against MSCI ACWI ex-Japan weights.

¥293.6tn AUM · FY2025-end 15,154 bond ISINs OpenFIGI security master DV01 ¥105.7bn per bp MOF · MSPD ownership joins static · Vercel
  • Allocation vs policy portfolio, FY2006→FY2025 — three regime changes
  • Country × maturity DV01 heatmap, incl. the JGB book via OpenFIGI
  • Duration & DV01 time series, FY2019→FY2025
  • Bond explorer: filters, heatmap drill-down, ownership column, CSV export
  • Equity explorer vs MSCI ACWI ex-Japan — country, sector, top-10
  • Per-issue ownership vs outstanding (MOF JGBs, Treasury MSPD USTs)
German Pensions german-pensions.bzhmacro.com

An interactive rebuild of Deutsche Bank Research's Private pension reform in Germany — a bold move towards capital markets (Feb 2026), reconstructed from the primary sources the note cites rather than from its charts. Every series is re-fetched from the provider's own API — Eurostat, OECD SDMX, the ECB Data Portal — with every raw response committed, so any number on the page traces back to its payload. Both of the note's quantitative models are re-implemented from scratch and asserted against its printed outputs (the Figure 10 fee-drag model and the €8bn capital-flow calc rebuild to €8.3bn; 16/16 checks pass). Crucially it checks the note's description of the draft law against the Altersvorsorgereformgesetz Parliament actually passed six weeks later — four headline parameters had moved (cost cap 1.5%→1.0% as Effektivkosten, grants raised, the self-employed now eligible). Of 31 figures reconciled to primary sources, 13 match, 15 differ and 3 are unverifiable — all shown on the page. Everything is manipulable: model sliders, editable data tables that redraw live, per-chart and bulk CSV/JSON export.

DB Research rebuild Eurostat · OECD · ECB APIs 16/16 model checks 31-figure reconciliation draft vs enacted law static · Vercel
  • Fee-drag model (Fig 10) + €8bn capital-flow calc, re-derived
  • Every series re-fetched from source API, raw payloads committed
  • Draft-law reading checked against the enacted Altersvorsorgereformgesetz
  • 31-figure reconciliation: 13 match, 15 differ, 3 unverifiable
  • Editable data tables redraw charts live · sliders on both models
  • Per-chart & bulk CSV/JSON export · /data.json served with CORS
EUR Excess Liquidity eur-excess-liquidity.bzhmacro.com

A reproducible rebuild of the euro-area excess-liquidity story — the history, the liquidity identity term by term, the empirical link between reserve ampleness and secured funding spreads, and an interactive projection driven by the levers Isabel Schnabel set out in Towards a new Eurosystem balance sheet (Nov 2025). No number is hardcoded: 41 SDMX series from the ECB Data Portal (plus STOXX GC Pooling and FRED for the Fed comparison) are fetched with their API URLs and carried into the page with provenance attached. Pre-2023 excess liquidity is rebuilt from its definition — current accounts + deposit facility − minimum reserves — and checked against the published series on every overlapping day; the identity closes to the term most decompositions drop (the €356bn "net assets in euro"). The projection is honest arithmetic: asset runoff follows the ECB's own redemption table, autonomous factors grow at measured trailing rates, refinancing take-up is endogenous, and the ampleness→spread mapping is an in-browser OLS extrapolated through a user-tunable logistic — a way of pricing a view, with the ECB's own finding that the €STR–liquidity sensitivity is statistically zero today stated on the page. A second page maps the transmission graph — every actor's target rate, outside option, tenor and size — over the same snapshot.

ECB Data Portal · 41 SDMX series liquidity identity, closed Schnabel balance-sheet levers Lemke–Vladu demand curve live ECB refetch + weekly CI static · Vercel
  • Excess liquidity history + term-by-term identity decomposition
  • Pre-2023 EL rebuilt from definition, validated vs published daily
  • Interactive projection: endogenous take-up, runoff, autonomous factors
  • Ampleness→spread OLS seeded, extrapolated through a tunable logistic
  • Transmission map: actors, rates, outside options, flows over one snapshot
  • Drag-zoom charts · PNG/SVG/CSV export · ECB-vs-Fed explainer
Fed Monetary Transmission fed-monetary-transmission.bzhmacro.com

The US analogue to the EUR Excess Liquidity map: an interactive six-panel view of how the Fed's policy rate reaches asset prices, and where the transmission chain jams. The front page traces the grand map — players × horizon, the o/n rate hierarchy, the intraday funding clock, a friction calendar and a 2019 → 2026 scorecard — with reserves near 9.5% of GDP tracked against a fitted abundance elbow of ~11%. Seven estimations run on a 2014–2026 daily funding-market panel (3,076 observations, HAC standard errors) back the map's claims, and a dedicated FX intervention module reconstructs the T-account chain and funding-route calculator behind central-bank interventions, current to the 6 August 2026 H.4.1 release. Appendices rebuild Pozsar's seven-step shadow-banking credit-intermediation map as both directed graphs and T-accounts, with a full source register noting what could not be rebuilt.

Fed transmission map funding markets H.4.1 · SRF · TIC shadow banking (Pozsar) FX intervention T-accounts static · Vercel
  • Six-panel map: grand map, players × horizon, o/n rate hierarchy, intraday clock
  • Friction calendar & 2019–2026 scorecard
  • Seven estimations on a 2014–2026 daily panel (3,076 obs), HAC errors
  • Reserves-to-GDP vs a fitted abundance elbow (~9.5% vs ~11%)
  • FX intervention module: T-account chain, funding-route calculator, episodes
  • Shadow-banking appendices: Pozsar's map as graphs & T-accounts, source register
Eurex Monitor eurex-monitor.bzhmacro.com

A daily capture-and-basis engine for Eurex's two disclosed off-book trade files — EFP-Fin (bond vs future) and EFS (swap vs future) — which Eurex publishes on a rolling ~20-business-day window with no archive, so anything not captured is gone for good. Both legs of each trade print with sub-second timestamps, letting the site compute gross basis and implied repo directly from the prints (no external price feed, no timing mismatch) and rank cheapest-to-deliver by implied repo across all seven Bund-complex and BTP contracts. A validated Eurex conversion-factor engine (134/145 exact to 1e-5, including the corrected Buxl 4% notional and the Italian payment-delay adjustment) extends coverage to 98.1% of clean EFP-F trades via bond static joined from FIRDS. On the swap side, a two-feature classifier separates 1,275 interbank “gadgets” from curve trades across 2,997 EFS prints, and a peer-based cleaner catches unit and rate-encoding errors that magnitude heuristics alone miss — 83.2% of EFS trades pass both checks.

EFP-Fin · EFS rolling 20-day window CTD & implied repo conversion factors gadget classifier static · Vercel
  • Daily capture of Eurex's EFP-Fin & EFS files before the ~20-day window rolls off
  • Basis & CTD ranking across FGBS/FGBM/FGBL/FGBX/FOAT/FBTP/FBTS from same-print legs
  • Conversion-factor engine validated to 134/145 exact (1e-5), incl. Buxl's 4% notional
  • Gadget classifier: 1,275 spot-start benchmark-tenor EFS trades vs curve trades
  • Peer-based data cleaner flags unit/rate errors magnitude checks alone miss
  • Open interest & roll tracking from the daily snapshot summary report